Abstract:

The realization of common prosperity urgently requires transforming the social security system from a "broad coverage" paradigm to a "precision-oriented" paradigm. This paper transcends the traditional efficiency-equity dichotomy of welfare economics. It integrates welfare governance theory, institutional change theory, and digital governance theory to construct a precision governance analytical framework of "demand identification—resource matching—institutional feedback". Based on this framework, it systematically deconstructs the three major structural dilemmas faced by China's social security precision: the failure of the welfare targeting mechanism, the hierarchical fracture of basic livelihood security, and the vicious transmission of fiscal sustainability pressure. The study finds that solving these three dilemmas depends on constructing a trinity precision-oriented reform path of "technology-empowered identification, institutional hierarchical matching, and dynamic fiscal balance". Digital technology empowerment can reduce welfare targeting errors caused by information asymmetry, but the trap of "technological determinism" needs to be guarded against. Institutional hierarchical matching achieves the unity of bottom-line fairness and differential incentives through regional difference coefficient adjustment. Dynamic fiscal balance requires establishing a multi-source financing mechanism linked to changes in population structure. The theoretical contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it develops a welfare governance analytical framework applicable to the Chinese context, transcending the institutional boundaries of Western welfare state theories. Second, it reveals the interactive mechanism of the triple logics of "technology—institution—finance" in precision-oriented reform. Third, it provides an analytical tool for understanding how developing countries promote the modernization of the welfare system in the context of digital transformation.